ODD Ballklubb 0–0 Haugesund: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Haugesund

7/5/2020

Eliteserien · Round 6Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb50%

×Draw23%

Haugesund27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.28

ODD Ballklubb

1.83

Haugesund

1.28

ODD Ballklubb creates 43% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

1.07

1.49

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Haugesund

2.36

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

73%

ODD Ballklubb or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

50%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

28%

Haugesund wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

84%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

54%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

28%

Haugesund 1+ goals

72%

Haugesund 2+ goals

37%

Haugesund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

65%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.83

Haugesund attack 1.07 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

50%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

27%

ODD Ballklubb at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Rossbach

ODD Ballklubb · G

8.1

Match Events

59'

O. Ugwuadu← K. Jakobsen

66'

B. Källman← A. Ammitzbøll

74'

E. Skogvoll← J. Kitolano

81'

K. Gunnarshaug← J. Nilsen

81'

C. Grindheim← Bruno Leite

84'

Kristoffer Velde

89'

M. Bakenga← F. Jørgensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDHaugesund

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots10

5Corners6

12Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target5

3Off Target4

2Blocked1

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

544Total Passes372

473Accurate Passes296

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1