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ODD Ballklubb vs Egersund — 1. Division 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
Preview
15:00
Egersund
Egersund
9/20/20261. Division1. Division · Round 23Skagerak Arena
39%
ODD Ballklubb
model favours
39%23%39%

Both teams score in 92% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb39%
×Draw23%
Egersund39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.69
Egersund
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.57
Egersund
1.94

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.43
Egersund
1.81

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par
Egersund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Egersund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
61%
ODD Ballklubb or Egersund
77%
Draw or Egersund
61%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
20%
Egersund wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
82%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
50%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
24%
Egersund 1+ goals
82%
Egersund 2+ goals
50%
Egersund 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
50%
Egersund (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Egersund away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Egersund defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Egersund attack 1.94 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
39%
level
23%
Egersund scores more
39%

ODD Ballklubb at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Egersund score first in only 25% of matches
  • 77% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • ODD Ballklubb score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (77% and 63% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ballklubb
LDDLW
Egersund
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ODD Ballklubb face Egersund (1. Division)

1. Division returns with ODD Ballklubb hosting Egersund. Match starts September 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ODD Ballklubb host Egersund at Skagerak Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.