Oborishte 0–0 Chavdar Etropole: Result & Stats

Oborishte

FT

0 – 0

Chavdar Etropole

4/24/2019

Third League - Southwest · Round 29Stadio Orcho voyvoda (Panagyurishte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Oborishte45%

×Draw25%

Chavdar Etropole30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OborishteExpected goals in this matchChavdar Etropole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.20

Oborishte

1.52

Chavdar Etropole

1.20

Oborishte creates 27% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 87 away

1.70

creates per match

1.55

0.85

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Oborishte

1.70

Chavdar Etropole

1.55

allows per match

Oborishte

0.85

Chavdar Etropole

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Chavdar Etropole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw

70%

Oborishte or Chavdar Etropole

75%

Draw or Chavdar Etropole

55%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+

22%

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals

78%

Oborishte 2+ goals

45%

Oborishte 3+ goals

20%

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

70%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

34%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)

60%

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oborishte scores more

45%

level

25%

Chavdar Etropole scores more

30%

Oborishte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff