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Obolon'-Brovar vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

Obolon'-Brovar
Obolon'-Brovar
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
S. Sukhanov 28' (pen), 20'
D. Antiukh 88' (pen)
A. Batahov 74'
E. Guerrero 38', 5'
10/20/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Obolon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar43%
×Draw24%
Zorya Luhansk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obolon'-Brovar
1.63
Zorya Luhansk
1.42

Obolon'-Brovar creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar
1.41
Zorya Luhansk
1.39

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar
1.45
Zorya Luhansk
1.85

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar-0.50scores less
Zorya Luhansk+0.28scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar or draw
67%
Obolon'-Brovar or Zorya Luhansk
76%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
57%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+
22%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals
80%
Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals
48%
Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals
22%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
76%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
41%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)
56%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.41 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Obolon'-Brovar scores more
43%
level
24%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
33%

Obolon'-Brovar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Obolon'-Brovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
E. GuerreroZorya LuhanskZorya Luhansk · F
9.0

Match Events

5'
E. Guerrero↳ P. Mićin
20'
S. Sukhanov↳ S. Kosovskyi
24'
Kodjo Aziangbe
25'
Yegor Prokopenko
28'
S. SukhanovPenalty
38'
E. Guerrero↳ R. Vantukh
41'
Valery Dubko
56'
D. Nahnoinyi← K. Aziangbe
57'
I. Krasnopir← S. Sukhanov
64'
R. Chernenko← V. Dubko
71'
Arsenii Batahov
74'
A. Batahov
77'
Anderson Jordan
77'
D. Myshniov← P. Mićin
80'
O. Slobodian← S. Kosovskyi
80'
V. Hrusha← R. Taranukha
88'
D. AntiukhPenalty
90'
I. Snurnitsyn← Jordan

Possession

39%Obolon'-Brovar

Shots

14Obolon'-Brovar

Pass accuracy

48%Obolon'-Brovar

Statistics

Obolon'-BrovarZorya
Overview
39%Possession61%
14Total Shots10
2.18Expected Goals (xG)1.53
6Corners3
17Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots10
8On Target7
4Off Target1
2Blocked2
6Inside Box3
8Outside Box7
Passing
39%Possession61%
329Total Passes485
246Accurate Passes392
75%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
17Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Obolon'-Brovar vs Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk beat Obolon'-Brovar 4-2 in Premier League on October 20, 2023.

Goals: E. Guerrero (5', 38'), S. Sukhanov (20', 28' pen), A. Batahov (74'), D. Antiukh (88' pen).

Zorya Luhansk controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Obolon Arena in Kiev.