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Oakleigh Cannons vs Heidelberg United — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
6/9/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 17Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons50%
×Draw22%
Heidelberg United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
1.90
Heidelberg United
1.38

Oakleigh Cannons creates 38% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 88 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Heidelberg United
1.68

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Heidelberg United
1.36

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Heidelberg United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
72%
Oakleigh Cannons or Heidelberg United
78%
Draw or Heidelberg United
50%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
28%
Heidelberg United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
85%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
56%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
29%
Heidelberg United 1+ goals
75%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
40%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
64%
Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Heidelberg United away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Heidelberg United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.90

Heidelberg United attack 1.68 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
50%
level
22%
Heidelberg United scores more
28%

Oakleigh Cannons at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Oakleigh Cannons 5–1 Heidelberg United

Oakleigh Cannons beat Heidelberg United 5-1 in Victoria NPL on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.