Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oakleigh Cannons vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
Preview
10:15
Green Gully
Green Gully
8/14/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 24Jack Edwards Reserve
Big match
55%
Oakleigh Cannons
model favours
55%22%23%

Green Gully score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons55%
×Draw22%
Green Gully23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
1.98
Green Gully
1.20

Oakleigh Cannons creates 65% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 87 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Green Gully
1.32

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Green Gully
1.52

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Green Gully →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
77%
Oakleigh Cannons or Green Gully
78%
Draw or Green Gully
45%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
32%
Green Gully wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
86%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
59%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
31%
Green Gully 1+ goals
70%
Green Gully 2+ goals
34%
Green Gully 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
71%
Green Gully (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.98

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
55%
level
22%
Green Gully scores more
23%

Oakleigh Cannons at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 85% of Green Gully’s matches
  • 77% of Green Gully’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Oakleigh Cannons have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Oakleigh Cannons sit 1, Green Gully 14 in the table
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cannons
WDWWD
Gully
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oakleigh Cannons host Green Gully

August 14, 2026: Oakleigh Cannons take on Green Gully in Victoria NPL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oakleigh Cannons host Green Gully at Jack Edwards Reserve.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.