Oakleigh Cannons 2–1 Dandenong Thunder

Oakleigh Cannons

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dandenong Thunder

6/2/2023

Victoria NPL · Round 16Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons57%

×Draw21%

Dandenong Thunder22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oakleigh CannonsExpected goals in this matchDandenong Thunder

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.27

Oakleigh Cannons

2.13

Dandenong Thunder

1.27

Oakleigh Cannons creates 68% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 86 away

2.44

creates per match

1.45

1.08

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons

2.44

Dandenong Thunder

1.45

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons

1.08

Dandenong Thunder

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Dandenong Thunder →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw

78%

Oakleigh Cannons or Dandenong Thunder

79%

Draw or Dandenong Thunder

43%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+

35%

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals

88%

Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals

63%

Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals

35%

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals

72%

Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals

36%

Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)

72%

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Dandenong Thunder away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.83 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.45 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more

57%

level

21%

Dandenong Thunder scores more

22%

Oakleigh Cannons at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff