Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oakleigh Cannons vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
Preview
05:00
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
8/29/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 26Jack Edwards Reserve
Big match
56%
Oakleigh Cannons
model favours
56%21%22%

Dandenong City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons56%
×Draw21%
Dandenong City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
2.04
Dandenong City
1.21

Oakleigh Cannons creates 69% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Dandenong City
1.34

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Dandenong City
1.64

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
78%
Oakleigh Cannons or Dandenong City
79%
Draw or Dandenong City
44%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
34%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
87%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
60%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
33%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
70%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
34%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
72%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Dandenong City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dandenong City attack 1.34 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
56%
level
21%
Dandenong City scores more
22%

Oakleigh Cannons at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 87% of Dandenong City’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cannons
WDWWD
City
WLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oakleigh Cannons host Dandenong City

August 29, 2026: Oakleigh Cannons take on Dandenong City in Victoria NPL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oakleigh Cannons host Dandenong City at Jack Edwards Reserve.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.