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Oakleigh Cannons vs Altona Magic — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
5 – 0
Altona Magic
Altona Magic
3/6/2020Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 4Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons61%
×Draw20%
Altona Magic20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
2.29
Altona Magic
1.24

Oakleigh Cannons creates 85% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 87 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Altona Magic
1.40

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Altona Magic
2.14

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Altona Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Altona Magic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
80%
Oakleigh Cannons or Altona Magic
80%
Draw or Altona Magic
39%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
38%
Altona Magic wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
90%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
66%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
40%
Altona Magic 1+ goals
71%
Altona Magic 2+ goals
35%
Altona Magic 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
75%
Altona Magic (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Altona Magic away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Altona Magic defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.29

Altona Magic attack 1.40 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
61%
level
20%
Altona Magic scores more
20%

Oakleigh Cannons at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Oakleigh Cannons 5–0 Altona Magic

Oakleigh Cannons beat Altona Magic 5-0 in Victoria NPL on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.