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AaB II vs Viby — League #126 2026

AaB II
AaB II
FT
2 – 2
Viby
Viby
9/26/2015League #126League #126 · Round 8AaB's Anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AaB II39%
×Draw25%
Viby35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AaB II
1.46
Viby
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

AaB II
1.50
Viby
1.14

allows per match

AaB II
1.60
Viby
1.43

finishing

AaB II+0.00on par
Viby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AaB II ↓

Viby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AaB II or draw
65%
AaB II or Viby
75%
Draw or Viby
61%

Winning margin

AaB II wins by 2+
19%
Viby wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AaB II 1+ goals
77%
AaB II 2+ goals
43%
AaB II 3+ goals
18%
Viby 1+ goals
75%
Viby 2+ goals
40%
Viby 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AaB II (draw refunded)
53%
Viby (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AaB II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Viby away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AaB II attack 1.50 + Viby defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Viby attack 1.14 + AaB II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AaB II scores more
39%
level
25%
Viby scores more
35%

AaB II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AaB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #126: AaB II 2–2 Viby

AaB II and Viby drew 2-2 in League #126 on September 26, 2015.

The match was played at AaB's Anlæg in Aalborg.