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Oakland County vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Oakland County
Oakland County
PST
20:00
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
5/9/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Clawson Stadium (Clawson, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oakland County42%
×Draw24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakland County
1.64
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.46

Oakland County creates 12% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oakland County
2.08
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

Oakland County
1.92
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

Oakland County+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland County ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oakland County or draw
66%
Oakland County or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
76%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
58%

Winning margin

Oakland County wins by 2+
21%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oakland County 1+ goals
81%
Oakland County 2+ goals
49%
Oakland County 3+ goals
23%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
77%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
43%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Oakland County (draw refunded)
55%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland County at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland County attack 2.08 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + Oakland County defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oakland County scores more
42%
level
24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
34%

Oakland County at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oakland County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oakland County host Cincinnati Dutch Lions

May 9, 2020: Oakland County take on Cincinnati Dutch Lions in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oakland County host Cincinnati Dutch Lions at Clawson Stadium (Clawson, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.