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Nyva Ternopil vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
11/10/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 16Ternopilskyi miskyi stadion im. Romana Shukhevycha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nyva Ternopil40%
×Draw30%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Ternopil
1.12
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.93

Nyva Ternopil creates 20% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nyva Ternopil
1.08
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.84

allows per match

Nyva Ternopil
1.01
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.16

finishing

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Ternopil ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nyva Ternopil or draw
70%
Nyva Ternopil or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
70%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
60%

Winning margin

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
16%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
67%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
31%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
10%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
61%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
24%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
57%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Ternopil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Ternopil attack 1.08 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nyva Ternopil scores more
40%
level
30%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
30%

Nyva Ternopil at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nyva Ternopil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Nyva Ternopil 0–0 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Nyva Ternopil and Podillya Khmelnytskyi drew 0-0 in Persha Liga on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Ternopilskyi miskyi stadion im. Romana Shukhevycha in Ternopil.