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Nyköping vs Syrianska FC — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Nyköping
Nyköping
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
4/16/2023Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 3Rosvalla IP Konstgräs A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Nyköping55%
×Draw20%
Syrianska FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyköping
2.25
Syrianska FC
1.48

Nyköping creates 52% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

creates per match

Nyköping
2.64
Syrianska FC
1.73

allows per match

Nyköping
1.24
Syrianska FC
1.86

finishing

Nyköping+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyköping ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Nyköping or draw
75%
Nyköping or Syrianska FC
80%
Draw or Syrianska FC
45%

Winning margin

Nyköping wins by 2+
33%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nyköping 1+ goals
89%
Nyköping 2+ goals
65%
Nyköping 3+ goals
39%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
77%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
43%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nyköping (draw refunded)
69%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyköping at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyköping attack 2.64 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Nyköping defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nyköping scores more
55%
level
20%
Syrianska FC scores more
25%

Nyköping at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nyköping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyköping vs Syrianska FC

Syrianska FC beat Nyköping 3-2 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Rosvalla IP Konstgräs A in Nyköping.