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Nykobing FC vs VSK Århus — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
Preview
12:00
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
10/11/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 11
43%
VSK Århus
model favours
29%28%43%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Nykobing FC29%
×Draw28%
VSK Århus43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.02
VSK Århus
1.32

VSK Århus creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
VSK Århus
1.14

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
VSK Århus
1.10

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
57%
Nykobing FC or VSK Århus
72%
Draw or VSK Århus
71%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
11%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
64%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
27%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
8%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
73%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
38%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
40%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
29%
level
28%
VSK Århus scores more
43%

VSK Århus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Nykobing FC and VSK Århus have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
WWWW
Århus
WWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nykobing FC host VSK Århus

October 11, 2026: Nykobing FC take on VSK Århus in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.