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Nykobing FC vs Skive — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
Preview
13:00
Skive
Skive
3/7/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 17
Big match
43%
Skive
model favours
31%26%43%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nykobing FC31%
×Draw26%
Skive43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.17
Skive
1.43

Skive creates 22% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 85 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
Skive
1.36

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
Skive
1.39

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
Skive+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Skive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
57%
Nykobing FC or Skive
74%
Draw or Skive
69%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
13%
Skive wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
69%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
33%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
11%
Skive 1+ goals
76%
Skive 2+ goals
42%
Skive 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
42%
Skive (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Skive away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + Skive defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Skive attack 1.36 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
31%
level
26%
Skive scores more
43%

Skive at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
WWWW
Skive
DWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nykobing FC host Skive

March 7, 2027: Nykobing FC take on Skive in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.