Nyasa Big Bullets vs Mitundu Baptist

Nyasa Big Bullets

Preview

12:30

Mitundu Baptist

2/7/2027

Super League · Round 29

72%

Nyasa Big Bullets

model favours

72%20%9%

Nyasa Big Bullets and Mitundu Baptist have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

33%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets72%

×Draw20%

Mitundu Baptist9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchMitundu Baptist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.49

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.92

Mitundu Baptist

0.49

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 292% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.25

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.33

Mitundu Baptist

0.25

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.74

Mitundu Baptist

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Mitundu Baptist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

91%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Mitundu Baptist

80%

Draw or Mitundu Baptist

28%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

45%

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

85%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

57%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

30%

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals

39%

Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals

9%

Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

89%

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

72%

level

20%

Mitundu Baptist scores more

9%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Bullets

WWWDD

Baptist

DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff