Nyasa Big Bullets vs Dedza Dynamos

Nyasa Big Bullets

Preview

12:30

Dedza Dynamos

1/17/2027

Super League · Round 26

Big match

66%

Nyasa Big Bullets

model favours

66%20%13%

Nyasa Big Bullets sit 2, Dedza Dynamos 14 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets66%

×Draw20%

Dedza Dynamos13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchDedza Dynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.76

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.01

Dedza Dynamos

0.76

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 164% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 65 away

2.33

creates per match

0.78

0.74

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.33

Dedza Dynamos

0.78

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.74

Dedza Dynamos

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Dedza Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

87%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Dedza Dynamos

80%

Draw or Dedza Dynamos

34%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

41%

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

87%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

59%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

32%

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals

53%

Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals

18%

Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

83%

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

66%

level

20%

Dedza Dynamos scores more

13%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Bullets

WWWDD

Dynamos

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff