Nyasa Big Bullets 1–1 Blue Eagles: Result & Stats

Nyasa Big Bullets

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blue Eagles

10/15/2022

Super League · Round 21Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets56%

×Draw24%

Blue Eagles19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchBlue Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.85

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.65

Blue Eagles

0.85

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 94% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 67 away

2.33

creates per match

0.97

0.74

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.33

Blue Eagles

0.97

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.74

Blue Eagles

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Blue Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

81%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Blue Eagles

76%

Draw or Blue Eagles

44%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

31%

Blue Eagles wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

81%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

49%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

23%

Blue Eagles 1+ goals

57%

Blue Eagles 2+ goals

21%

Blue Eagles 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

74%

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.65

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

56%

level

24%

Blue Eagles scores more

19%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff