Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NWS Spirit vs Sydney FC U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

NWS Spirit
NWS Spirit
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
2/17/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 1Christie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

NWS Spirit46%
×Draw23%
Sydney FC U2331%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NWS Spirit
1.78
Sydney FC U23
1.43

NWS Spirit creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 94 away

creates per match

NWS Spirit
1.74
Sydney FC U23
1.56

allows per match

NWS Spirit
1.30
Sydney FC U23
1.82

finishing

NWS Spirit+0.00on par
Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NWS Spirit ↓

Sydney FC U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

NWS Spirit or draw
69%
NWS Spirit or Sydney FC U23
77%
Draw or Sydney FC U23
54%

Winning margin

NWS Spirit wins by 2+
25%
Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

NWS Spirit 1+ goals
83%
NWS Spirit 2+ goals
53%
NWS Spirit 3+ goals
26%
Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
76%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
42%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

NWS Spirit (draw refunded)
60%
Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NWS Spirit at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 57 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NWS Spirit attack 1.74 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + NWS Spirit defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NWS Spirit scores more
46%
level
23%
Sydney FC U23 scores more
31%

NWS Spirit at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "NWS Spirit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: NWS Spirit 0–0 Sydney FC U23

NWS Spirit and Sydney FC U23 drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Christie Park in Macquarie Park.