Nuova Cosenza 2–1 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Nuova Cosenza

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Modena

8/21/2022

Serie B · Round 2Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Nuova Cosenza39%

×Draw28%

Modena33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nuova CosenzaExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Nuova Cosenza

1.23

Modena

1.10

Nuova Cosenza creates 12% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 76 away

1.06

creates per match

1.12

1.07

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza

1.06

Modena

1.12

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza

1.07

Modena

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Modena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw

67%

Nuova Cosenza or Modena

72%

Draw or Modena

61%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+

17%

Modena wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals

71%

Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals

35%

Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals

13%

Modena 1+ goals

67%

Modena 2+ goals

30%

Modena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)

54%

Modena (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Modena away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Modena defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Modena attack 1.12 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more

39%

level

28%

Modena scores more

33%

Nuova Cosenza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nuova Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff