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Nuova Cosenza vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cittadella
Cittadella
5/6/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 38Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Nuova Cosenza38%
×Draw30%
Cittadella32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nuova Cosenza
1.13
Cittadella
1.00

Nuova Cosenza creates 13% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 134 away

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.06
Cittadella
0.92

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.07
Cittadella
1.19

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par
Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Cittadella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw
68%
Nuova Cosenza or Cittadella
70%
Draw or Cittadella
62%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
16%
Cittadella wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
68%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
31%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
11%
Cittadella 1+ goals
63%
Cittadella 2+ goals
26%
Cittadella 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
55%
Cittadella (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more
38%
level
30%
Cittadella scores more
32%

Nuova Cosenza at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nuova Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nuova Cosenza vs Cittadella

Nuova Cosenza beat Cittadella 1-0 in Serie B on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Cosenza.