Numancia II vs UD Santa Marta: Preview & Prediction

Numancia II

CANC

00:00

UD Santa Marta

3/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 34Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Rubio Garcés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Numancia II47%

×Draw26%

UD Santa Marta28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Numancia IIExpected goals in this matchUD Santa Marta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.11

Numancia II

1.52

UD Santa Marta

1.11

Numancia II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 115 away

1.53

creates per match

0.97

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Numancia II

1.53

UD Santa Marta

0.97

allows per match

Numancia II

1.25

UD Santa Marta

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia II+0.00on par

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia II ↓

UD Santa Marta →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Numancia II or draw

72%

Numancia II or UD Santa Marta

74%

Draw or UD Santa Marta

53%

Winning margin

Numancia II wins by 2+

23%

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Numancia II 1+ goals

78%

Numancia II 2+ goals

45%

Numancia II 3+ goals

20%

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

67%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

30%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Numancia II (draw refunded)

63%

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Numancia II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Numancia II attack 1.53 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Numancia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Numancia II scores more

47%

level

26%

UD Santa Marta scores more

28%

Numancia II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Numancia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Numancia II host UD Santa Marta

March 29, 2020: Numancia II take on UD Santa Marta in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Numancia II host UD Santa Marta at Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Rubio Garcés.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Numancia II vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Numancia II host UD Santa Marta