Nueva Esparta 4–1 Academia Anzoátegui

Nueva Esparta

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Academia Anzoátegui

5/17/2023

Segunda División · Apertura - 12Estadio Dynamo La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nueva Esparta36%

×Draw30%

Academia Anzoátegui34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nueva EspartaExpected goals in this matchAcademia Anzoátegui

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.04

Nueva Esparta

1.09

Academia Anzoátegui

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 44 away

1.13

creates per match

1.05

1.03

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Nueva Esparta

1.13

Academia Anzoátegui

1.05

allows per match

Nueva Esparta

1.03

Academia Anzoátegui

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Esparta ↓

Academia Anzoátegui →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nueva Esparta or draw

66%

Nueva Esparta or Academia Anzoátegui

70%

Draw or Academia Anzoátegui

64%

Winning margin

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+

15%

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals

66%

Nueva Esparta 2+ goals

30%

Nueva Esparta 3+ goals

10%

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals

65%

Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals

28%

Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)

52%

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Esparta at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Academia Anzoátegui away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Esparta attack 1.13 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.05 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nueva Esparta scores more

36%

level

30%

Academia Anzoátegui scores more

34%

Nueva Esparta at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nueva Esparta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff