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NTUPES vs Hang Yuen — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

NTUPES
NTUPES
FT
3 – 6
Hang Yuen
Hang Yuen
5/26/2019Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 3Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

NTUPES20%
×Draw20%
Hang Yuen60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NTUPES
1.22
Hang Yuen
2.23

Hang Yuen creates 83% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 48 away

creates per match

NTUPES
1.19
Hang Yuen
1.88

allows per match

NTUPES
2.58
Hang Yuen
1.25

finishing

NTUPES+0.00on par
Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NTUPES ↓

Hang Yuen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

NTUPES or draw
40%
NTUPES or Hang Yuen
80%
Draw or Hang Yuen
80%

Winning margin

NTUPES wins by 2+
8%
Hang Yuen wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

NTUPES 1+ goals
70%
NTUPES 2+ goals
34%
NTUPES 3+ goals
12%
Hang Yuen 1+ goals
89%
Hang Yuen 2+ goals
65%
Hang Yuen 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

NTUPES (draw refunded)
25%
Hang Yuen (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NTUPES at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

Hang Yuen away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NTUPES attack 1.19 + Hang Yuen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hang Yuen attack 1.88 + NTUPES defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

NTUPES scores more
20%
level
20%
Hang Yuen scores more
60%

Hang Yuen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hang Yuen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: NTUPES 3–6 Hang Yuen

Hang Yuen beat NTUPES 6-3 in Taiwan Football Premier League on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Kaohsiung National Stadium in Gaoxiong.