NSI Runavik 2–3 B68: Result & Stats

NSI Runavik

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

B68

K. Olsen 90+2'

J. Nielsen 29'

M. Samba 48'

B. Jensen 41'

Bouacar Sidik 33'

10/16/2022

Meistaradeildin · Round 26við Løkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

NSI Runavik60%

×Draw21%

B6819%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NSI RunavikExpected goals in this matchB68

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.10

NSI Runavik

2.10

B68

1.10

NSI Runavik creates 91% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 75 away

2.05

creates per match

1.07

1.14

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

NSI Runavik

2.05

B68

1.07

allows per match

NSI Runavik

1.14

B68

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NSI Runavik+0.00on par

B68+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSI Runavik ↓

B68 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

NSI Runavik or draw

81%

NSI Runavik or B68

79%

Draw or B68

40%

Winning margin

NSI Runavik wins by 2+

37%

B68 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

NSI Runavik 1+ goals

88%

NSI Runavik 2+ goals

62%

NSI Runavik 3+ goals

35%

B68 1+ goals

67%

B68 2+ goals

30%

B68 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NSI Runavik (draw refunded)

76%

B68 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSI Runavik at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 86 matches

B68 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSI Runavik attack 2.05 + B68 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.10

B68 attack 1.07 + NSI Runavik defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

NSI Runavik scores more

60%

level

21%

B68 scores more

19%

NSI Runavik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "NSI Runavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

33'

41'

48'

53'

E. Clementsen← K. Clementsen

59'

B. Nolsøe← M. Mortensen

59'

M. Geyti← A. Petersen

59'

S. Sigvardsen← L. Giessing

63'

A. Liu

66'

H. Davidsen← B. Egilsson

67'

E. Korytskyi← J. Nielsen

70'

M. Geyti

76'

P. Hentze

77'

S. Løkin← Bouacar Sidik

80'

B. Hansen

80'

T. Thomsen

83'

B. Schubert

90+2'

A. Benjaminsen← M. Samba

90+2'

H. Strømsten← T. Thomsen

90+2'

K. Olsen

NSI

B68

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Sidik

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Nielsen

Manager: P. Jacobsen

59'▲B. Nolsøe←▼M. Mortensen

59'▲M. Geyti←▼A. Petersen

59'▲S. Sigvardsen←▼L. Giessing

66'▲H. Davidsen←▼B. Egilsson

67'▲E. Korytskyi←▼J. Nielsen

NSI Runavik substitutes

NolsøeGeytiSigvardsenDavidsenKorytskyiHøjgaardDanielsen

Manager: A. Olsen

53'▲E. Clementsen←▼K. Clementsen

77'▲S. Løkin←▼Bouacar Sidik

90+2'▲A. Benjaminsen←▼M. Samba

90+2'▲H. Strømsten←▼T. Thomsen

B68 substitutes

ClementsenLøkinBenjaminsenStrømstenPetersenDanielsenOlsen