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Novorizontino U20 vs Oeste U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
Preview
18:00
Oeste U20
Oeste U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
60%
Novorizontino U20
model favours
60%20%20%

Novorizontino U20 score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Novorizontino U2060%
×Draw20%
Oeste U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
2.19
Oeste U20
1.18

Novorizontino U20 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.73
Oeste U20
1.55

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.81
Oeste U20
1.65

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
Oeste U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

Oeste U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
80%
Novorizontino U20 or Oeste U20
80%
Draw or Oeste U20
40%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
37%
Oeste U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
89%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
64%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
37%
Oeste U20 1+ goals
69%
Oeste U20 2+ goals
33%
Oeste U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Oeste U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Oeste U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.73 + Oeste U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.19

Oeste U20 attack 1.55 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
60%
level
20%
Oeste U20 scores more
20%

Novorizontino U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Novorizontino U20 sit 19, Oeste U20 41 in the table
  • Novorizontino U20 and Oeste U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DWDLL
U20
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Novorizontino U20 host Oeste U20

August 21, 2026: Novorizontino U20 take on Oeste U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.