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Nové Zámky W vs Ružomberok W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
FT
3 – 2
Ružomberok W
Ružomberok W
9/18/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 8Štadión na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nové Zámky W27%
×Draw20%
Ružomberok W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky W
1.67
Ružomberok W
2.42

Ružomberok W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 65 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky W
1.31
Ružomberok W
1.85

allows per match

Nové Zámky W
3.00
Ružomberok W
2.03

finishing

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par
Ružomberok W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky W ↓

Ružomberok W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Nové Zámky W or draw
46%
Nové Zámky W or Ružomberok W
80%
Draw or Ružomberok W
73%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
12%
Ružomberok W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
81%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
50%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
23%
Ružomberok W 1+ goals
91%
Ružomberok W 2+ goals
69%
Ružomberok W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
33%
Ružomberok W (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 26 matches

Ružomberok W away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky W attack 1.31 + Ružomberok W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ružomberok W attack 1.85 + Nové Zámky W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nové Zámky W scores more
27%
level
20%
Ružomberok W scores more
54%

Ružomberok W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ružomberok W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Nové Zámky W 3–2 Ružomberok W

Nové Zámky W beat Ružomberok W 3-2 in I Liga - Women on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión na Sihoti in Nové Zámky.