Nové Sady 5–1 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Nové Sady

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

HFK Olomouc

10/28/2022

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 13Stadion FK Nové Sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Nové Sady56%

×Draw21%

HFK Olomouc24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové SadyExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.33

Nové Sady

2.13

HFK Olomouc

1.33

Nové Sady creates 60% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

1.80

creates per match

1.21

1.46

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Nové Sady

1.80

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Nové Sady

1.46

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Sady+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Sady ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Nové Sady or draw

76%

Nové Sady or HFK Olomouc

79%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

44%

Winning margin

Nové Sady wins by 2+

33%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nové Sady 1+ goals

88%

Nové Sady 2+ goals

63%

Nové Sady 3+ goals

35%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

74%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

38%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Nové Sady (draw refunded)

70%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Sady at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 82 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Sady attack 1.80 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.13

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Nové Sady defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nové Sady scores more

56%

level

21%

HFK Olomouc scores more

24%

Nové Sady at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nové Sady will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff