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Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Veľké Ludince — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
2/26/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 15Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom51%
×Draw23%
Veľké Ludince26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.85
Veľké Ludince
1.27

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 46% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.63
Veľké Ludince
1.00

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.54
Veľké Ludince
2.07

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par
Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Veľké Ludince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw
74%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Veľké Ludince
77%
Draw or Veľké Ludince
49%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
28%
Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
84%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
55%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
28%
Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
72%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
36%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
66%
Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.85

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
51%
level
23%
Veľké Ludince scores more
26%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Nové Mesto nad Váhom 0–1 Veľké Ludince

Veľké Ludince beat Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1-0 in 3. liga - West on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión AFC Považan in Nové Mesto nad Váhom.