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Nouadhibou vs SNIM — Premier League 2020

Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
FT
2 – 1
SNIM
SNIM
3/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Nouadhibou57%
×Draw26%
SNIM17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouadhibou
1.52
SNIM
0.71

Nouadhibou creates 114% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

Nouadhibou
1.99
SNIM
0.91

allows per match

Nouadhibou
0.51
SNIM
1.05

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par
SNIM+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

SNIM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw
83%
Nouadhibou or SNIM
74%
Draw or SNIM
43%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+
30%
SNIM wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals
78%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
45%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
20%
SNIM 1+ goals
51%
SNIM 2+ goals
16%
SNIM 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
77%
SNIM (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.51 · 77 matches

SNIM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.05 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.99 + SNIM defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.52

SNIM attack 0.91 + Nouadhibou defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nouadhibou scores more
57%
level
26%
SNIM scores more
17%

Nouadhibou at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nouadhibou 2–1 SNIM

Nouadhibou beat SNIM 2-1 in Premier League on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.