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Notts County vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Notts County
Notts County
Preview
15:00
Stevenage
Stevenage
11/21/2026League OneLeague One · Round 16Meadow Lane
Big match
40%
Notts County
model favours
40%28%32%

Notts County score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Notts County40%
×Draw28%
Stevenage32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notts County
1.23
Stevenage
1.06

Notts County creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

creates per match

Notts County
1.29
Stevenage
0.95

allows per match

Notts County
1.18
Stevenage
1.16

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Notts County or draw
68%
Notts County or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
60%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+
17%
Stevenage wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals
71%
Notts County 2+ goals
35%
Notts County 3+ goals
13%
Stevenage 1+ goals
65%
Stevenage 2+ goals
29%
Stevenage 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)
56%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.29 + Stevenage defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stevenage attack 0.95 + Notts County defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Notts County scores more
40%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
32%

Notts County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
LLLWW
Stevenage
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Notts County host Stevenage

November 21, 2026: Notts County take on Stevenage in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Notts County host Stevenage at Meadow Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.