Notts County vs Reading — League One 2018
Notts County score first in only 8% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Notts County42%
Reading32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Notts County creates 18% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Notts County ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Notts County at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches
Reading away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Notts County attack 1.29 + Reading defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.47
Reading attack 1.32 + Notts County defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Notts County at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
- Notts County and Reading have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
Lincoln
Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport County
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield Town
WycombeReading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton Albion
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter City
Port Vale
Rotherham
NorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Notts County host Reading on Saturday, 17 April 2027 at 14:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Notts County vs Reading — Match Preview
Notts County face Reading on April 17, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Notts County host Reading at Meadow Lane.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.