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Notts County vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Notts County
Notts County
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
12/12/2026League OneLeague One · Round 19Meadow Lane
40%
Notts County
model favours
40%26%34%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Notts County40%
×Draw26%
Plymouth34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notts County
1.40
Plymouth
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 114 away

creates per match

Notts County
1.29
Plymouth
1.39

allows per match

Notts County
1.18
Plymouth
1.50

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Notts County or draw
66%
Notts County or Plymouth
74%
Draw or Plymouth
60%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+
19%
Plymouth wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals
75%
Notts County 2+ goals
41%
Notts County 3+ goals
17%
Plymouth 1+ goals
72%
Plymouth 2+ goals
37%
Plymouth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)
54%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.29 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Notts County defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Notts County scores more
40%
level
26%
Plymouth scores more
34%

Notts County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Notts County score first in only 8% of matches
  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
LLLWW
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Notts County host Plymouth

December 12, 2026: Notts County take on Plymouth in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Notts County host Plymouth at Meadow Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.