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Notts County vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Notts County
Notts County
Preview
15:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
1/9/2027League OneLeague One · Round 24Meadow Lane
Big match
40%
Notts County
model favours
40%26%34%

Notts County score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Notts County40%
×Draw26%
Leyton Orient34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notts County
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.23

Notts County creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

creates per match

Notts County
1.29
Leyton Orient
1.29

allows per match

Notts County
1.18
Leyton Orient
1.41

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Notts County or draw
66%
Notts County or Leyton Orient
74%
Draw or Leyton Orient
60%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+
18%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals
74%
Notts County 2+ goals
39%
Notts County 3+ goals
15%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
71%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
35%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)
54%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.29 + Leyton Orient defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Leyton Orient attack 1.29 + Notts County defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Notts County scores more
40%
level
26%
Leyton Orient scores more
34%

Notts County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
LLLWW
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Notts County host Leyton Orient

January 9, 2027: Notts County take on Leyton Orient in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Notts County host Leyton Orient at Meadow Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.