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Notts County vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Notts County
Notts County
Preview
14:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
8/29/2026League OneLeague One · Round 3Meadow Lane
44%
Notts County
model favours
44%26%29%

Notts County score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Notts County44%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notts County
1.44
Burton Albion
1.12

Notts County creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 176 away

creates per match

Notts County
1.29
Burton Albion
1.06

allows per match

Notts County
1.18
Burton Albion
1.59

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Notts County or draw
71%
Notts County or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
56%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+
21%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals
76%
Notts County 2+ goals
42%
Notts County 3+ goals
18%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
67%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
31%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)
60%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.29 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Notts County defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Notts County scores more
44%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
29%

Notts County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
LLLWW
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Notts County face Burton Albion (League One)

League One returns with Notts County hosting Burton Albion. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Notts County host Burton Albion at Meadow Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.