Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Notts County vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Notts County
Notts County
Preview
14:00
Blackpool
Blackpool
9/26/2026League OneLeague One · Round 8Meadow Lane
39%
Notts County
model favours
39%28%34%

Notts County score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Notts County39%
×Draw28%
Blackpool34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notts County
1.25
Blackpool
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 134 away

creates per match

Notts County
1.29
Blackpool
1.11

allows per match

Notts County
1.18
Blackpool
1.20

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Notts County or draw
66%
Notts County or Blackpool
72%
Draw or Blackpool
61%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+
17%
Blackpool wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals
71%
Notts County 2+ goals
36%
Notts County 3+ goals
13%
Blackpool 1+ goals
68%
Blackpool 2+ goals
32%
Blackpool 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)
53%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.29 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Notts County defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Notts County scores more
39%
level
28%
Blackpool scores more
34%

Notts County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
LLLWW
Blackpool
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Notts County vs Blackpool — Match Preview

Notts County face Blackpool on September 26, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Notts County host Blackpool at Meadow Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.