Nottingham Forest 1–0 West Ham: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Ham

T. Awoniyi 45+2'

8/14/2022

Premier League · Round 2The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Nottingham Forest47%

×Draw25%

West Ham28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.15

Nottingham Forest

1.56

West Ham

1.15

Nottingham Forest creates 36% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

1.37

creates per match

1.08

1.22

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.37

West Ham

1.08

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.22

West Ham

1.75

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.16scores less

West Ham-0.08on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

72%

Nottingham Forest or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

53%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

24%

West Ham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

79%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

46%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

21%

West Ham 1+ goals

68%

West Ham 2+ goals

32%

West Ham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

62%

West Ham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 28 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.37 + West Ham defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

West Ham attack 1.08 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

47%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

28%

Nottingham Forest at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Williams

Nottingham Forest · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

Declan Rice

43'

Saïd BenrahmaGoal cancelled

45+2'

T. Awoniyi

55'

Brennan JohnsonGoal cancelled

63'

Tomáš SoučekPenalty confirmed

64'

Scott McKenna

68'

G. Scamacca← M. Antonio

68'

M. Lanzini← Pablo Fornals

72'

S. Surridge← T. Awoniyi

75'

Dean Henderson

79'

S. Cook← M. Niakhaté

84'

Cafú← O. Mangala

85'

M. Cornet← J. Bowen

90+8'

Sam Surridge

90+8'

Brennan Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamWest

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots19

6Corners7

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots19

6On Target5

4Off Target8

3Blocked6

10Inside Box10

3Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

288Total Passes381

190Accurate Passes284

66%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2