Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester United

Nottingham Forest

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester United

Diogo Dalot 76'

Antony 32'

4/16/2023

Premier League · Round 31The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Nottingham Forest38%

×Draw25%

Manchester United37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.39

Nottingham Forest

1.42

Manchester United

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

1.34

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.34

Manchester United

1.44

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.33

Manchester United

1.50

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.01on par

Manchester United+0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

63%

Nottingham Forest or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

62%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

18%

Manchester United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

76%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

41%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

17%

Manchester United 1+ goals

75%

Manchester United 2+ goals

40%

Manchester United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

51%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.34 + Manchester United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Manchester United attack 1.44 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

38%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

37%

Nottingham Forest at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Bruno Fernandes

Manchester United · M

9.2

Match Events

3'

Harry Maguire

32'

Antony

65'

O. Mangala← R. Freuler

65'

S. Surridge← T. Awoniyi

67'

Neco Williams

72'

W. Weghorst← A. Martial

76'

Diogo Dalot↳ Antony

79'

Fred← C. Eriksen

81'

E. Dennis← S. McKenna

83'

Orel Mangala

88'

J. Lingard← M. Gibbs-White

90+3'

Wout Weghorst

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamManchester

Overview

32%Possession68%

6Total Shots22

0.73Expected Goals (xG)3.48

4Corners9

9Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots22

0On Target8

4Off Target9

2Blocked5

4Inside Box16

2Outside Box6

Passing

32%Possession68%

281Total Passes608

183Accurate Passes504

65%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3