Nottingham Forest 1–0 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool

T. Awoniyi 55'

10/22/2022

Premier League · Round 13The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Nottingham Forest36%

×Draw26%

Liverpool38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.40

Nottingham Forest

1.35

Liverpool

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

1.38

creates per match

1.61

1.18

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.38

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.18

Liverpool

1.32

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.06on par

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

62%

Nottingham Forest or Liverpool

74%

Draw or Liverpool

64%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

16%

Liverpool wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

74%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

39%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

15%

Liverpool 1+ goals

75%

Liverpool 2+ goals

41%

Liverpool 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

48%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.38 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

36%

level

26%

Liverpool scores more

38%

Liverpool at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Henderson

Nottingham Forest · G

8.6

Match Events

54'

Joe Gomez

55'

T. Awoniyi

62'

J. Henderson← Fábio Carvalho

62'

T. Alexander-Arnold← J. Milner

64'

J. Worrall← T. Awoniyi

64'

B. Johnson← J. Lingard

72'

Renan Lodi← N. Williams

76'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← Roberto Firmino

80'

O. Mangala← C. Kouyaté

88'

Joe Worrall

89'

Remo Freuler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamLiverpool

Overview

25%Possession75%

10Total Shots15

2Corners11

14Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots15

7On Target7

1Off Target7

2Blocked1

6Inside Box14

4Outside Box1

Passing

25%Possession75%

227Total Passes691

145Accurate Passes595

64%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

7Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0