Nottingham Forest 1–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea

S. Aurier 63'

R. Sterling 16'

1/1/2023

Premier League · Round 18The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Nottingham Forest38%

×Draw25%

Chelsea37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.41

Nottingham Forest

1.42

Chelsea

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 35 away

1.34

creates per match

1.49

1.33

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.34

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.33

Chelsea

1.49

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.01on par

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

63%

Nottingham Forest or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

62%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

18%

Chelsea wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

76%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

41%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

17%

Chelsea 1+ goals

76%

Chelsea 2+ goals

41%

Chelsea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

50%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.34 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

38%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

37%

Nottingham Forest at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

W. Boly

Nottingham Forest · D

7.5

Match Events

16'

R. Sterling

42'

Ryan Yates

53'

César Azpilicueta

61'

M. Kovačić← D. Zakaria

63'

S. Aurier↳ W. Boly

72'

H. Ziyech← Jorginho

73'

C. Gallagher← R. Sterling

73'

P. Aubameyang← M. Mount

78'

J. Colback← O. Mangala

82'

S. Surridge← B. Johnson

87'

C. Chukwuemeka← C. Pulišić

88'

N. Williams← T. Awoniyi

90+3'

Renan Lodi

90'

Conor Gallagher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamChelsea

Overview

28%Possession72%

12Total Shots7

1Corners2

16Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots7

5On Target2

4Off Target2

3Blocked3

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

28%Possession72%

256Total Passes697

196Accurate Passes623

77%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2