Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aston Villa

E. Dennis 15'

A. Young 22'

10/10/2022

Premier League · Round 10The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Nottingham Forest45%

×Draw25%

Aston Villa29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.17

Nottingham Forest

1.52

Aston Villa

1.17

Nottingham Forest creates 30% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 31 away

1.37

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.37

Aston Villa

1.13

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.21

Aston Villa

1.67

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.06on par

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

71%

Nottingham Forest or Aston Villa

75%

Draw or Aston Villa

55%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

23%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

78%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

45%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

20%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

69%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

33%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

61%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.67 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.37 + Aston Villa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aston Villa attack 1.13 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

45%

level

25%

Aston Villa scores more

29%

Nottingham Forest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Young

Aston Villa · D

7.7

Match Events

15'

E. Dennis↳ M. Gibbs-White

18'

22'

27'

45'

50'

58'

N. Williams← S. Aurier

65'

D. Ings← Philippe Coutinho

71'

S. Surridge← E. Dennis

75'

Jacob Ramsey

77'

L. Dendoncker← J. McGinn

81'

C. Archer← J. Ramsey

82'

Ryan Yates

90'

L. O'Brien← M. Gibbs-White

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamAston

Overview

40%Possession60%

6Total Shots12

1Corners4

13Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target2

1Off Target2

2Blocked8

2Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

333Total Passes506

246Accurate Passes436

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3