Atletico Tucuman 0–2 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnasia L.P.

P. De Blasis 69'

A. Capurro 43'

2/13/2012

Primera Nacional · Round 20Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico Tucuman26%

×Draw30%

Gimnasia L.P.44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.17

Atletico Tucuman

0.83

Gimnasia L.P.

1.17

Gimnasia L.P. creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.67

Gimnasia L.P.

1.33

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.00

Gimnasia L.P.

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par

Gimnasia L.P.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

56%

Atletico Tucuman or Gimnasia L.P.

70%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

74%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

8%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

56%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

20%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

5%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

69%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

33%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

37%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 0.67 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.33 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

26%

level

30%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

44%

Gimnasia L.P. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

A. Capurro

56'

C. Montiglio← M. Zarate

61'

S. Vittor← Ariel M. García

65'

F. Barrionuevo← D. Barrado

69'

M. Martínez← J. Castillo

69'

P. De Blasis

74'

A. Ruíz← P. De Blasis

81'

L. Altobelli← G. Choy

Atletico

Gimnasia

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

56'▲C. Montiglio←▼M. Zarate

65'▲F. Barrionuevo←▼D. Barrado

69'▲M. Martínez←▼J. Castillo

Atletico Tucuman substitutes

MontiglioBarrionuevoMartínezSalvatierraRossiMarmolEspínola

61'▲S. Vittor←▼Ariel M. García

74'▲A. Ruíz←▼P. De Blasis

81'▲L. Altobelli←▼G. Choy

Gimnasia L.P. substitutes

VittorRuízAltobelliPiarrouVargasMagallánBangardino