Noteć Czarnków 1–4 Stargard Szczeciński

Noteć Czarnków

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Stargard Szczeciński

11/11/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Noteć Czarnków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Noteć Czarnków41%

×Draw22%

Stargard Szczeciński36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Noteć CzarnkówExpected goals in this matchStargard Szczeciński

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.69

Noteć Czarnków

1.82

Stargard Szczeciński

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 83 away

2.04

creates per match

1.80

1.57

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Noteć Czarnków

2.04

Stargard Szczeciński

1.80

allows per match

Noteć Czarnków

1.57

Stargard Szczeciński

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noteć Czarnków ↓

Stargard Szczeciński →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Noteć Czarnków or draw

64%

Noteć Czarnków or Stargard Szczeciński

78%

Draw or Stargard Szczeciński

59%

Winning margin

Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+

22%

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals

84%

Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals

54%

Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals

27%

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals

82%

Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals

50%

Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)

53%

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noteć Czarnków at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Stargard Szczeciński away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noteć Czarnków attack 2.04 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Noteć Czarnków scores more

41%

level

22%

Stargard Szczeciński scores more

36%

Noteć Czarnków at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Noteć Czarnków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff