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Notch vs Voorwaarts — Eerste Divisie 2019

Notch
Notch
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Voorwaarts
Voorwaarts
6/23/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Notch35%
×Draw24%
Voorwaarts41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notch
1.46
Voorwaarts
1.61

Voorwaarts creates 10% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

creates per match

Notch
1.76
Voorwaarts
1.95

allows per match

Notch
1.27
Voorwaarts
1.17

finishing

Notch+0.00on par
Voorwaarts+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notch ↓

Voorwaarts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Notch or draw
59%
Notch or Voorwaarts
76%
Draw or Voorwaarts
65%

Winning margin

Notch wins by 2+
16%
Voorwaarts wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Notch 1+ goals
77%
Notch 2+ goals
43%
Notch 3+ goals
18%
Voorwaarts 1+ goals
80%
Voorwaarts 2+ goals
48%
Voorwaarts 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Notch (draw refunded)
46%
Voorwaarts (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Voorwaarts away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notch attack 1.76 + Voorwaarts defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Voorwaarts attack 1.95 + Notch defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Notch scores more
35%
level
24%
Voorwaarts scores more
41%

Voorwaarts at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Voorwaarts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Notch 0–0 Voorwaarts

Notch and Voorwaarts drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.