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Notch vs PVV — Eerste Divisie 2019

Notch
Notch
FT
3 – 0
PVV
PVV
6/11/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 12Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Notch41%
×Draw24%
PVV35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notch
1.57
PVV
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 48 away

creates per match

Notch
1.76
PVV
1.60

allows per match

Notch
1.27
PVV
1.38

finishing

Notch+0.00on par
PVV+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notch ↓

PVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Notch or draw
65%
Notch or PVV
76%
Draw or PVV
59%

Winning margin

Notch wins by 2+
20%
PVV wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Notch 1+ goals
79%
Notch 2+ goals
46%
Notch 3+ goals
21%
PVV 1+ goals
76%
PVV 2+ goals
42%
PVV 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Notch (draw refunded)
54%
PVV (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

PVV away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notch attack 1.76 + PVV defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.57

PVV attack 1.60 + Notch defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Notch scores more
41%
level
24%
PVV scores more
35%

Notch at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Notch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Notch vs PVV

Notch beat PVV 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.