Nosta 0–0 Zenit Izhevsk: Result & Stats

Nosta

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit Izhevsk

5/6/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nosta41%

×Draw26%

Zenit Izhevsk33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NostaExpected goals in this matchZenit Izhevsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.22

Nosta

1.40

Zenit Izhevsk

1.22

Nosta creates 15% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 41 away

1.12

creates per match

0.93

1.51

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Nosta

1.12

Zenit Izhevsk

0.93

allows per match

Nosta

1.51

Zenit Izhevsk

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nosta+0.00on par

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nosta ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nosta or draw

67%

Nosta or Zenit Izhevsk

74%

Draw or Zenit Izhevsk

59%

Winning margin

Nosta wins by 2+

19%

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nosta 1+ goals

75%

Nosta 2+ goals

41%

Nosta 3+ goals

17%

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

70%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

34%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nosta (draw refunded)

56%

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nosta at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nosta attack 1.12 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Nosta defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nosta scores more

41%

level

26%

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

33%

Nosta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nosta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff