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Norwich vs Southampton — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
Preview
18:45
Southampton
Southampton
10/14/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10Carrow Road
Big match
38%
Norwich
model favours
38%25%37%

Southampton score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 43+ matches

Norwich38%
×Draw25%
Southampton37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.43
Southampton
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 43 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.52
Southampton
1.52

allows per match

Norwich
1.29
Southampton
1.34

finishing

Norwich+0.18scores more
Southampton+0.06on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
63%
Norwich or Southampton
75%
Draw or Southampton
62%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
18%
Southampton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
76%
Norwich 2+ goals
42%
Norwich 3+ goals
17%
Southampton 1+ goals
76%
Southampton 2+ goals
41%
Southampton 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
51%
Southampton (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 54 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.34 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Southampton defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Southampton attack 1.52 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Norwich scores more
38%
level
25%
Southampton scores more
37%

Norwich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Southampton have scored in 13 games running
  • 82% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Southampton win just 37% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Norwich
Balanced
Southampton
Possession-dominant
55%Possession60%
82%Pass accuracy86%
12.4Shots14.3
1.35xGBiggest gap1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorwichSouthampton

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Norwich
2
Draws
4
Southampton
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 63%
0–12–11–14–40–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Norwich
DWDWL
Southampton
WDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norwich face Southampton (Championship)

Championship returns with Norwich hosting Southampton. Match starts October 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Norwich host Southampton at Carrow Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.