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Norwich vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
T. Pukki 84'
M. Aarons 71'
T. Cantwell 55'
R. Towell 11'
12/1/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Norwich60%
×Draw23%
Rotherham18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.80
Rotherham
0.86

Norwich creates 109% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 12 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.54
Rotherham
0.47

allows per match

Norwich
1.26
Rotherham
2.06

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more
Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
82%
Norwich or Rotherham
77%
Draw or Rotherham
40%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
34%
Rotherham wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
83%
Norwich 2+ goals
54%
Norwich 3+ goals
27%
Rotherham 1+ goals
58%
Rotherham 2+ goals
21%
Rotherham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
77%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Norwich scores more
60%
level
23%
Rotherham scores more
18%

Norwich at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36
T. CantwellNorwichNorwich · M
9.2

Match Events

11'
R. Towell
42'
J. Taylor← J. Newell
46'
R. Wood← C. Robertson
55'
T. Cantwell↳ T. Pukki
71'
M. Aarons↳ T. Cantwell
73'
J. Proctor← A. Forde
84'
T. Pukki↳ M. Stiepermann
87'
J. Rhodes← J. Lewis
89'
T. Trybull← M. Vrančić
90+3'
B. Godfrey← T. Pukki

Possession

64%Norwich

Shots

19Norwich

Pass accuracy

56%Norwich

Statistics

NorwichRotherham
Overview
64%Possession36%
19Total Shots10
7Corners5
7Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots10
7On Target4
7Off Target6
5Blocked0
10Inside Box5
9Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
498Total Passes272
391Accurate Passes169
79%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls14
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Norwich vs Rotherham

Norwich beat Rotherham 3-1 in Championship on December 1, 2018.

Goals: R. Towell (11'), T. Cantwell (55'), M. Aarons (71'), T. Pukki (84').

Norwich controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.