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Norwich vs QPR — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
Preview
19:45
QPR
QPR
11/24/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Carrow Road
Big match
44%
Norwich
model favours
44%27%28%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Norwich44%
×Draw27%
QPR28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.37
QPR
1.04

Norwich creates 32% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 57 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.52
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Norwich
1.29
QPR
1.22

finishing

Norwich+0.18scores more
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
72%
Norwich or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
56%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
21%
QPR wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
75%
Norwich 2+ goals
40%
Norwich 3+ goals
16%
QPR 1+ goals
65%
QPR 2+ goals
28%
QPR 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
61%
QPR (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 54 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + QPR defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.37

QPR attack 0.79 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Norwich scores more
44%
level
27%
QPR scores more
28%

Norwich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Norwich
Balanced
QPR
Balanced
55%Possession47%
82%Pass accuracy75%
12.4Shots11.9
1.35xGBiggest gap1.05
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorwichQPR

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Norwich
5
Draws
1
QPR
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 70%
2–13–11–10–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Norwich
DWDWL
QPR
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norwich vs QPR — Match Preview

Norwich face QPR on November 24, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Norwich host QPR at Carrow Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.