Norwich 3–0 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Coventry

K. Dowell 81'

J. Sargent 45+1'

T. Pukki 14'

9/3/2022

Championship · Round 8Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Norwich37%

×Draw26%

Coventry37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

Norwich

1.38

Coventry

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

1.53

creates per match

1.47

1.28

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Norwich

1.53

Coventry

1.47

allows per match

Norwich

1.28

Coventry

1.23

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Norwich+0.21scores more

Coventry+0.08on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

63%

Norwich or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

63%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

17%

Coventry wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

75%

Norwich 2+ goals

40%

Norwich 3+ goals

16%

Coventry 1+ goals

75%

Coventry 2+ goals

40%

Coventry 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

50%

Coventry (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.53 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Coventry attack 1.47 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Norwich scores more

37%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

37%

Norwich at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Sargent

Norwich · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

T. Pukki↳ M. Núñez

45'

Sam Byram

45+1'

J. Sargent↳ A. Ramsey

46'

V. Gyökeres← K. Palmer

68'

Fábio Tavares← T. Walker

69'

M. Godden← M. Rose

72'

K. Dowell← A. Ramsey

72'

Gabriel Sara← T. Pukki

72'

O. Hernández← S. Byram

81'

K. Dowell↳ J. Sargent

82'

J. Panzo← C. Doyle

83'

J. Hugill← J. Sargent

83'

D. Sinani← T. Cantwell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichCoventry

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots6

4Corners1

8Fouls4

Shots

14Total Shots6

7On Target1

5Off Target4

2Blocked1

13Inside Box4

1Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

645Total Passes406

571Accurate Passes324

89%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2